Coming general elections on March 5 is the strangest one I will be participating in over the many decades since the Panchayat. Many I have talked to from Damak to Mahendranagar feel it will be cancelled and postponed at the last minute; many fear it might be violent when held (and there are already indications of that with curfews imposed in important Tarai towns, and the army mobilized to keep peace); and, this close to election day, there is apathy among voters who are not sure who they will vote for, or if they will vote at all.
The reasons for this unusual uncertainty stem from both short-term causes and long-term issues. The Gen-Z rupture of September 2025 that led to this situation was never about moving general elections up two years early, which is what the interim Sushila Karki government’s only agenda is. It was primarily about Nepal’s rampant, pervasive and deeply structural corruption actively promoted by the parties over the last two decades since sidelining the monarchy. Unfortunately, not only has the Karki government not done anything about it, it has actively been pardoning – and withdrawing corruption cases – against the most corrupt.
The last few years had seen corruption in its most blatant form involving the prime minister and senior ministers as well as civil servants. It engulfed the civil service, police, judiciary and even educational institutions. Crony capitalism blossomed, with the big private sector outfits scheming hand-in-glove with politicians and senior civil servants to fleece the state and ultimately the Nepali consumers. Anti-corruption watchdog bodies were paralyzed into inaction by the very corrupt ministers in charge of these bodies. They claimed that these were mere allegations not proven in court, when it was the powerful themselves who prevented the investigations from moving forward or being registered in court.
They also forgot that the dictum “innocent unless proven guilty” applies only to the ruled citizens (to prevent the state from using the law indiscriminately against them) and does not apply to the rulers whose moral mandate to rule collapses when riddled with suspicion. Julius Caesar’s famous saying holds here: “even Caesar’s wife must be above suspicion”! It was a moral high position held by him, by Nelson Mandela (against his wife Winne), by India’s Lal Krishna Advani (who resigned from public office once credible allegations were made and did not return to public office until cleared), and of course in the classic case in the Ramayana by Lord Ram vis-à-vis his wife Sita. None of them hid, like ours do, under narrow legalisms.
Among the most damaging to Karki government’s public image is the case involving the commission set up under former justice Gauri Bahadur Karki to investigate wrong doings by those in power during the September 2026 Gen-Z rupture. It started as early as October when the government, when asked why it was not initiating investigations into the wanton killing of unarmed peaceful demonstrators, said it had to wait for the investigation commission to submit its report. The commission immediately countered back and said that does not have to stop the government from conducting its normal criminal proceedings. Meanwhile, the government kept prolonging the commission’s period, including when the commission had already said it had completed its work and was ready to submit its report.
The government’s latest excuse for postponing the submission of the commission report is that it will unduly influence and harm the upcoming elections. It is a very, very lame excuse, which calls into question its very ethics: if the investigation report identifies criminals, and that will harm the conduct of upcoming elections – which incidentally are being held earlier than planned because the Oli-Lekhak government dissipated in ignominy and the parliament had to be dissolved due to the Gen-Z rupture – does it not mean that senior political criminals are running as candidates with the Karki government hell-bent on shielding them? Indeed, new elections under this failed dispensation was never the demand of the Gen-Z movement: it was to do away with corruption and the corrupt. Unfortunately, both are being coddled and protected, which is why Nepali voters are in this uneasy state of mind regarding the upcoming elections.
The long-term, chronic issues that bothers voters have deeper roots that go farther back than the Gen-Z revolt. The current dispensation brought about by the 2015 constitution as well as the previous multi-party ones that began institutionalizing corruption since the mid-1990s wove seamlessly into this one. No bigger proof is needed than the fact that the primary leaders of both are the same characters who have been in power – in government as well as at the head of their parties – for the last three and a half decades! They have managed the amazing political acrobatics – aided and abetted by civic leaders and journalists spearheading the 2005 regime change – of being the corrupt as well as the salvation-givers from corruption! And the Nepali voters are finally seeing through the charade, and hence their trepidations. Hence also the reason for the rise of various Balen Shahs and new political parties like RSP!
What must be kept in mind is not just corruption involving money, which is only the consequence. The primary causes are moral and ideological corruptions. While the moral degeneracy of Nepal’s ruling elites dwarfs in comparison to what the Epstein files are revealing about that of their Western counterparts, it nevertheless is at levels that is poorly looked upon by a less libertarian and more orthodox Nepali public. It is political corruption exposed over the decades that has Nepali voters moving away from established big parties. While they all espouse some form of socialism – and have also managed to insert that into the 2015 constitution – there is little of any of that that can be found in the policies and practices of the Nepali Kangress (BP socialism), UML (Marxism-Leninism) or the Maoists (Maoism) over the last three decades they have been in power. They have been practicing the worst form of crony capitalism and the graft that follows from them, and the Nepali public is sick of it.
In the Age of Trump and the end of the Age of Aid, Nepal faces severe development challenges in the years ahead. Corruption of public institutions and its reform are one major problem. De-industrialization that began with multiparty democracy in the mid-1990s continues, with most of Nepal’s working population having to migrate out of the country. Agriculture has been on a freefall, and agriculture-dominant Nepal is becoming major importer of rice and vegetables. Reputation of educational outfits is also on a freefall with excessive political partification. Health is only available to those who can pay good money for it. Unfortunately, one does not hear any new policy initiatives from parties on these critical issues except the repetition of stale and no-longer believable old slogans. In its absence, the current political campaigns are becoming mere beauty contests between personalities.
There is a tendency to compare Nepal’s Gen-Z rupture with that of Bangladesh. While similar for the initial causes, the outcomes are already becoming wildly different. Even though deposed Hasina’s Awami League has been kept out of contesting the polls – and how the consequence of that will play out in the years ahead will depend on how the new government handles it politically – a major party kept out of the fray (the BNP) has managed to win two-thirds majority in the voting, promising a degree of stability. Also, the interim Yunus government did a fairly good job of discussing the defects in governance and bringing out a July Charter of reforms as well as putting it up for referendum (which saw its overwhelming endorsement).
The interim Karki government in Nepal did no such thing; and given the very defective nature of the 2015 constitution – it structurally does not allow for a majority in parliament to any party because of the mixing up of direct first-past-the-post and proportionally elected members into one body – the chance of a stable government emerging from this election is near zero. All parties have admitted that the constitution is defective; and the last government which was a 2/3rd majority coalition of UML and Nepali Kangress not only admitted that but promised amendments, but did absolutely nothing in its year in power till swept away by the Gen-Z rupture. Succumbing to bad advice by the very same failed leaders of the previous dispensations, the interim Karki government avoided any discussion of such issues, and is slated to go down in history rather ignominiously. And its failure to initiate reforms based on the opportunity provided by Gen-Z rupture means that Nepal can look forward to years of instability ahead.
Dipak Gyawali is a political economist who served as Nepal’s Minister of Water Resources (2002–2003) and is known for his work on water governance and development policy.
This article was originally published on Spotlight on 25 February 2026.
Image copyright © IFES.
